Decoding of the Ukraine Fire of Ukraine line per line

Hours of conversations in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday ended with a joint statement of Uu Ukraine that supports a high 30 -day fire proposed to Americans in the war with Russia.

The Trump administration officials see this as a great advance towards the foreign policy objectives of a leader who campaigned with a promise to end the war.

For Ukraine, the joint announcement is equivalent to a critical postponement for President Volodymyr Zelensky after a humiliating attack in the Oval office makes a fortnight per Trump and vice president JD Vance.

For Moscow, responsibility changes their responsibility, while war itself intensifies.

But so far only one side of the war, which depends on the Americans, has registered. And the proposal has only eight paragraphs, with scarce details beyond the desire to press quickly.

So, does the plausible fire stop? And if so, can the war end after Russia’s large -scale invasion three years ago in a fair and sustainable way, and in terms that keep the region and the world safe?

Statement: “Ukraine expressed the willingness to accept the US proposal. To promulgate a high immediate and intermediate fire of 30 days, which can be extended by the mutual agreement of the parties, and that is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation. The United States will communicate with Russia that Russian compensation is the key to achieving peace.”

Analysis: The keyword here is “immediate”, which leaves no doubt: Trump wants the weapons to shut up now. However, its sense of urgency has often caused concerns in Europe.

Many fear that hurrying the desired result without first solving the terms remove the military pressure of Moscow as invading power and could make a truce exploited.

They argue that he empowers the occupant force.

Fear is to bring Ukraine to effective surrender. The theory is that Russia, the greatest, most populated and militarily more self -sufficient power, could use a truce without first establishing concessions to consolidate its forces, cover a negotiation process and wait to see what happens politically for Trump during his mandate while clinging to everything he took advantage of; And even then try to take more land, based on its current occupation and potentially using a fracture in the Western Alliance to threaten more from Europe.

The process of negotiation of terms before a high fire in conflicts may be important to ensure that the sides convert current military threats into significant strategic gains.

Zelensky has previously tried to persuade Americans that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot be trusted, evidence for the fact that he broke Minsk’s agreements backed by Europe after confiscating the Ukrainian territory in 2014.

Trump rules out these concerns, saying that there will be security for Ukraine, but without saying how this will be ensured. He has said that Putin will be dissuaded and is in a difficult position with “without option”, but make a deal for reasons that “only I know.”

Rubio said Tuesday that the United States delegation had substantive discussions with Ukrainians in a permanent purpose of the war, including “what kind of guarantees will have for their long -term safety and prosperity,” but he did not explain again.

Statement: “The United States will immediately raise the pause on the exchange of intelligence and the resumption of security assistance to Ukraine.”

Analysis: This is the great victory for Zelensky in this agreement and sees that US weapons supplies are delivered at a rate of around $ 2 billion (£ 1.5 billion) -worth per month, restored.

Critically, it also means that Washington will once again share your intelligence data and satellite images with kyiv, which helps you point to Russian positions. The White House said it suspended this help because it felt that Zelensky was not “committed” to Trump’s peace plan.

The Ukrainian leader had tried to express his concerns based on some of the above reasons when he was expelled from the Oval office. It is likely that your reservations will be reserved as long as it appreciates the agreement in this way, a necessary price to pay to restore the security assistance of the United States.

Statement: “Both delegations agreed to appoint their negotiation teams and immediately begin negotiations towards lasting peace that provides the long -term security of Ukraine. The United States promised to discuss these specific proposals with representatives of Russia. The Ukrainian delegation reiterated that European partners will be involved in the peace process.”

Analysis: This paragraph is confusing because it is not clear if it refers to the negotiations between Ukraine and the United States on the establishment of security guarantees for Ukraine, or if it refers to negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to end the war permanently once a fire is high.

If it is the first, it seems to suggest that Washington and Kyiv will highlight any decision on how to support the security of Ukraine and deter Russian violations of a truce, and the United States will discuss this with Moscow.

But everything is far from the type of security guarantee that Zelensky finally wanted, which was NATO membership, which Trump has said that it will not happen, an important long -term concession to Moscow’s demands.

The paragraph also contains a vague and warm reference to the idea of ​​European peace forces, which have been launched by the United Kingdom and France, with the line attributed only to the Ukrainian delegation.

It is remarkable that the United States seems not to be putting its name to this part after Moscow categorically rejected the idea.

Statement: “… The presidents of both countries agreed to conclude as soon as possible an integral agreement to develop the critical mineral resources of Ukraine to expand the economy of Ukraine and guarantee the prosperity and long -term security of Ukraine.”

Analysis: This was the agreement that was never signed after Zelensky was told to leave the White House last month.

It would give the United States a future participation in some of the state mineral deposits of Ukraine, as well as oil and gas revenues.

Trump sees it as an effective security guarantee for Ukraine, arguing that he would deter Russian reinvasion because US companies would be on the ground.

The opponents point out that this makes no sense because the American economic presence in Ukraine did not deter Putin in 2014 or 2022.

Statement: “The Ukrainian delegation reiterated the strong gratitude of the Ukrainian people to President Trump …”

Analysis: This is a key line that could help explain Zelenky’s rehabilitation in the eyes of the White House.

Vance had punished him in the Oval office for not thanking Trump, despite the fact that the Ukrainian leader has thanked the dozens of the United States for his military support.

Now Trump has an official Ukrainian thanks, in a role destined to make peace.