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Your guide to what the American elections mean 2024 for Washington and the world
“We were in war with a dictator. Now we are fighting a dictator with the support of a traitor.” Thus, in a great speech, I did Claude MalhouritSo far is unknown French SenatorDetermine the challenge in our time. He was right. We now know that the United States and thus turned the world to the worst. But this should not be surprising. Doubt instead of how Europe responds and will respond.
In the 1970s, I had a good luck to live and work in Washington, DC. This was a Watergate era. I watched Listening sessions in Congress On the poor operation of President Richard Nixon, with admiration. It has become clear that members of Congress on both parties commit their commitment to protecting the constitution seriously and literally. Nixon was about to be isolated and condemned. He warned of this, resigned by the origins.
Compare this with Donald Trump’s second dismissal in February 2021 for a much greater crime of inciting the rebellion that aims to overthrow the results of the 2020 presidential elections. It is impossible for anyone who is sane to doubt his sins. but The vote of seven members of the Republican Senators only For conviction. It was not enough. In leaving it, the Congress killed the constitution. What happened from that moment It could be predicted and expected.
Since the 1970s, the United States has suffered from an unlikely moral collapse. We see this daily as this administration is allowed to carry out American obligations, to the allies, and weakness, to the press and the law. my colleague John Bern Murdoch Also showed that Maga positions are close to Russian positions today: the power will not be easily obtained.
This is a truly historical disaster. But if the United States is no longer supportive and defending liberal democracy, then the only force that is likely to be strong enough to fill the gap is Europe. If the Europeans succeed in this heavy task, they should start securing their home. Their ability to do this depends on resources, time, will and cohesion.
There is no doubt that Europe can significantly increase its defense spending. While there is an increase in the share of GDP that has been spent on defending over the past decade in the 10 most populated population countries, as well as the United Kingdom and the United States, Poland is the only one to spend more than the United States, relative to GDP. Fortunately, the percentage of financial deficit and net debt to GDP in EU27 is much lower than those in the United States. Moreover, The purchasing power of the GDP of the European Union and the United Kingdom together More From the United States and dwarves Russia. In short, economically, Europe has resources, especially with the United Kingdom, although it will need reforms before Mario Drajhi last year If it is possible to catch a technical knee. (See Plans.)
However, these economic capabilities cannot be converted into Strategic independence from the United States Overnight. As is based in London International Institute for Strategic Studies Offers, European weapons depend on American products and technology to be possible. It will need a second and fun component – time. This creates a security vulnerability, recently, by influencing fear of Stopping American military support to Ukraine. Europe will fight to provide what will be missing.
The third component is the will. Europeans must want to defend the “European values” that are adopting personal freedom and liberal democracy. To do this, it will be an economical and even dangerous costly. In Europe, also, the right -wing views of the Maga Republicans are, even if this is not dominant on the conservative side of politics as in the United States. But some countries-Hungary, Slovakia and perhaps soon-will get governments supporting the two valleys. Marine Le Pen in France has more than just flirting with being supportive in the past. Also frightening is a rise The far right and left from Germany. In short, Europe has the “fifth columns” almost everywhere.
At the same time, some important European leaders and countries, Germany, above all, offer some will. In particular, Friedrich Mirz, who is expected to be the next German advisor, agreed to be the potential coalition partners to amend the “debt brakes” and spend hundreds of billions of euros on infrastructure and defense. Mirz also said that Germany will do “everything required” to repel “threats of freedom and peace” in Europe. However, will it be presented? The answer to this question is unclear.
Finally, not the last is the primary component of cohesion. Unlike the United States, China or Russia, Europe is not a country. Indeed, unlike British British hysteria, it is far from being a state. Its ability to act strategically is hindered by dual facts that lack joint policy. The club is better seen as a club that needs a high degree of consensus if it is supposed to act effectively and legally on foreign policy and defense matters. The Europeans were free passengers in the United States because this is the natural thing for each of them. Unfortunately, the same thing still applies if the United States abandoned them. Many members will tend to leave the burden into some large powers. But even coordinating the policies and army of Germany, France and the United Kingdom will be difficult, because this must be done by an approximate equal committee-which lacks the leader.
In short, we have an irresistible power and an unstable object: Trump’s reliable is the power; The difficulties in making Europe to fill its will are the unanimous object. Moreover, the latter should be overcome quickly. Until this is done, Europe will continue to rely heavily on its security on the unreliable United States.
If Europe is not quickly mobilizing in its defense, liberal democracy may be its foundation completely. Today feels a little like the thirties of the twentieth century. This time, unfortunately, the United States appears on the wrong side.
