How Trump’s commercial policy is pressing American farmers

Caleb Ragland, a soy farmer in Magnolia, Ky., Voted for president Donald Trump In 2016, 2020 and 2024. Now, however, it has to navigate a mined rate of rates at a time when the sector already faces the main winds against.

Ragland works with his wife and three children and has deep roots in the community. His family has been cultivating on earth for more than two centuries. But in recent years, it has seen a percentage decrease of two digits in crop prices, while production costs increase. Soja futures have dropped more than 40% in the last three years along with corn futures.

As the pressures increase in the industry as a result of the rates imposed by Trump’s second administration, as well as the retaliation levies of other countries, he is concerned about the longevity of his business.

“My children could potentially be the tenth generation if they are able to cultivate,” said Ragland, who is also the president of the American Association of Soybean, to CNBC. “And when you have policies that are completely out of our control, which manipulate our 20%prices, 30%, and on the other hand, our costs increase, we will not be able to remain in business.”

This is not the first time that farmers have to deal with new tariffs. Back in Trump’s first term, the commercial war with China in 2018, a time when Ragland said the agricultural economy was “in a much better place than is at this time,” cost the United States agricultural industry. More than $ 27 billionand soybean constituted virtually 71% of annualized losses.

That commercial war has caused lasting damage. Until today, the United States has not yet recovered its loss in the market share of soybean exports to China, the world Product number one buyerAccording to the ASA.

“Tariffs break confidence,” Ragland said. “It is much more difficult to find new customers than to retain those already has.”

The White House last week imposed a 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico along with an additional 10% tariff in Chinese imports.

While Trump soon reversed the course for Granting a one -month tariff delay for car manufacturers Wednesday, after stopping tariffs a day later to Some Canadian and Mexican goods until April 2He said in an interview he broadcast on Sunday in Fox News that tariffs “could upload” with time.

China tariffs were not included in these exemptions. China retaliates with own taxes, which Mainly aim at American agricultural assets. Specifically, US soybeans are now subject to an additional 10%rate, while corn receives an additional charge of 15%.

“We are already at the point that we are not profitable,” Ragland said. “Why are the hell trying to add insult to the injuries for the ag sector basically adding a tax?”

Ragland said “appreciates the president’s ability to negotiate” and wants Trump to succeed for the good of the country. However, he emphasized that those in the industry, especially soy producers, have no “elasticity in our ability to resist a commercial war that takes away our results.”

“People are upset,” Ragland said about the feeling of other farmers, emphasizing that everyone needs relief through agreements that reduce barriers to trade and a new five -year comprehensive agricultural law project, legislation that provides producers Basic products support programsinter alia. “You are talking about people’s livelihoods,” he said.

The Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, said the Trump administration was. Weighing exemptions on some agricultural products of rates in Canada and Mexico. Trump’s tight measures on Thursday included a 10% reduced rate on potassawhich is used for fertilizer.

More than 80% of the potassa needs of American farmers are supplied by Canada, said Ken Seitz of Nutrients – An supplier of supplies and culture services based in Canada, during the BMO Global Metals Conference, Mining & Critical Minerals last month.

“When observing the implications of tariffs for Nutrien, of course, the greatest discussion is around potassa, and that is because in a market that is from 10 million to 11 million tons in a given year, we ourselves supply around 40% of that market,” said the company’s executive director during the conference. “We believe that the cost of tariffs will be transmitted to the American farmer.”

Even in the period prior to the implementation of Trump’s tariffs, American farmers were playing alarm. Despite the latest Purdue University/Cme Group Ag Economy barometer Reading that shows that the feeling of farmers in general improved in February, 44% of respondents revealed that month that commercial policy will be more important for their farms in the next five years.

“Usually, when a policy question is asked, with much, the most important policy is crop insurance,” said Michael Langemeier, an agricultural economist at Purdue University. “Crop insurance is up to the apple cake and baseball. It is a program that is very dear, because it provides a very effective safety network.”

“The fact that crop insurance was a distant second in the commercial policy says a lot,” he said.

The February survey also showed that almost 50% of farmers said they think that a commercial war that leads to a significant decrease in agricultural exports in the United States is “probable” or “very likely.” Langemeier estimated that between mid -February and early March, there was a 33% drop per acre in the net yield of soybeans and corn related to tariffs. That is aware of the fact that 2025 “was not ending to be an extremely profitable year before this,” he revealed.

The economist believes that there may be a little adjustment downward in the general feeling of farmers in the short term. However, a constructive consequence of tariffs could be that they accelerate the signing of a new agricultural invoice, he said.

“Well, how in the world do you think of amounts for commercial payments if you don’t even know what the amounts will be for the farm’s bill,” said Langemeier. He hopes that the new firm of the farm’s bill will take place at some point this year.

Looking at the next spring season, the Bank of America Steve Byrne analyst wrote in a February 25 note that tariffs could lead to “more conservative purchases of crop inputs.” That would mean a lower risk of fertilizers, which could affect not only Nutrien but others such as Mosaic and INDUSTRIAS CFThe analyst said.

Actions of these companies, as well as other actions related to agriculture such as AGCO and DeereAll sold on March 3 and 4 after the Trump Rate announcement.

“I think we have seen the sale of AG shares just because of the general concerns that the farmer will not be so profitable this year,” said Seth Goldstein de Morningstar in an interview with CNBC.

During the past month, Mosaic has slipped almost 8%, while CF Industries has fallen more than 9%. Nutrien has also lost more than 1%. Agco and Deere has been better at that time, winning 1.7% and 0.3%, respectively.

When it comes to how this commercial war will affect American farmers in the long term, Goldstein does not see that significant impact. He anticipates that global commercial flows will change and cancel each other during the next two or three years or so.

“While there may be a short -term impact this year of soybeans on stores without really available buyers, I think we would eventually see other countries and then we would start buying more US soybeans. UU.”, Said the strategist of shares. “Maybe China buys more soy in Brazil, but perhaps a place like Europe then buys more soybeans from the United States, and we have … not so much difference.”

As is, it is forecast that Brazil will be the largest soy producer in the world before the US Department of agriculture. For corn, on the other hand, it is forecast that the United States is in the first place, inventing 31% of global production In the year of marketing.

However, others in Wall Street believe that tariffs will be more important in commercial dynamics.

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer’s analyst, predicts that the duties will probably solidify Brazil becoming the main world corn and soy producer, while the US will become a kind of incremental supplier for the world.

“Brazil specifically has more capacity to grow its surface, more capacity to grow to increase its participation in world grain trade,” he told CNBC. “The tariffs and some of the other decisions that the administration is making accelerates some of that.”