Large inflation report. What to wait

With the concerns in the maximum that the tariff policies of President Donald Trump will aggravate inflation, a report on Wednesday could deliver some slightly encouraging news.

It is forecast that the consumer price index for February will show an increase of 0.3% for a wide range of goods and services in the largest economy in the world. This projection has both for the measure of all elements and for the central index that excludes volatile food and energy prices.

Annually, that would put the inflation of the holders by 2.9% and the reading of the nucleus at 3.2%, both 0.1 lower percentage points than in January.

The good news is that these rates represent a continuation of a constant but quite slow reduction in the inflation rate during the past year. The bad news is that both are also well above the objective of 2% of the Federal Reserve, probably keeping the central bank waiting again when it meets next week.

“We expect a broad base deceleration, with weaker central goods and services,” he said in a note from Morgan Stanley’s economist, Diego Anzoategui. “Why still high? For three reasons: (1) We hope that the prices of used cars will increase due to past forest fires, (2) According to our analysis, certain goods and services show residual seasonality in February, and (3) we believe that supply limitations maintain inflation of high air rates in February.”

The big question is now where things are directed from here.

The Trump rate moves They have aroused the market concerns of both growing more slow inflation and growth. With Fed officials historically more in tune with the double mandate inflation side for prices stability and full employment, a prolonged period of high prices could put the Fed to the fence for a longer time.

However, President of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell And his colleagues have indicated that, in their opinion, tariffs have historically been increases in unique prices and non -fundamental inflation conductors. If that is also the case this time, those in charge of formulating policies could review any price of commercial policy prices and continue lowering the fees, since the markets are projecting this year.

Goldman Sachs economists expect the Fed to remain on hold until the policy looks clearer, and probably decreases the reference loan rate of the Central Bank in a half percentage of percentage at the end of this year.

“We see greater disinflation in the re -quilibrium pipe in the car, the rental of homes and labor markets, although we hope that compensation is updated inflation in medical care and an impulse of an escalation in the rates policy,” the signature said in a note.

The Labor Statistics Office will publish the IPC report at 8:30 am et.