Tariffs have increased the probability of an American recession: Pimco

The chances of the United States experience a recession in 2025 have increased due to the tariffs it has implemented, said Alec Kersman, managing director and head of Asia-Pacific in Pimco, in CNBC’s Converge in vivo Singapore event on Wednesday.

There is a “maybe of 35%” that the United States enters a recession this year, Kersman told Martin Soong from CNBC. That is above the probabilities of approximately 15% that Pimco estimated in December 2024 as the repercussions of the tariffs of US President Donald Trump enter into force.

However, Kersman said that the scenario of the company’s base case is that the economy of the United States will grow by 1% to 1.5%, which remains an expansion, despite being “a fairly significant decrease” of the above expectations.

In fact, according to Kamal Bhatia, president and CEO of Principal Asset Management, an impulse in national consumption due to such commercial policies could help the United States economy to grow more than expected.

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