The IPC of India stands for the fourth consecutive month, lower since July 2024

The inflation rate of India in February fell to a 3.61% lower than expected in February as vegetable prices cooled, the Ministry of Statistics and implementation of the country’s program said Wednesday.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expected a reading of 3.98% for the period. This is the first time since last summer that inflation has reached below the objective of the 4% RBI and marks the lowest monthly printing since July 2024.

Food inflation, which is a key component of the country’s CPI, reached 3.75%, with the prices of vegetables prices that decrease by 1.07%per year, compared to an increase of 11.35%in January. Pulse prices were also contracted by 0.35% in February, compared to a 2.59% increase in the previous month.

Meanwhile, prices growth for cereals and products decreased to 6.1% in February, little changed from 6.24% in January.

In a note on March 5, Bank of America analysts marked that the prices of vegetables in particular have fallen abruptly since October received higher supplies, especially for potatoes and tomatoes.

“We hope that the correction in vegetable prices will begin to reverse, possibly as soon as March, with risks of heat waves and interruptions related to crops to the crops,” they added.

The fall in inflation and deceleration of growth in the fifth largest economy in the world could reinforce the case so that the Central Bank of India progresses with more interest rate cuts, after implementing its First cut in almost five years At the beginning of last month. The measure, which took the country’s repo rate at 25 basic points to 6.25% at that time, took place as India’s GDP expanded by 6.2% weakest of hope. In the fourth quarter. In more general terms, the Indian economy grew only 6.5% in the financial year until March 2025, a strong deceleration of 9.2% of the previous year.

However, the RBI monetary policy committee has previously marked continuous concerns about winds against global markets, which are currently being shaken by a series of fees.

“The global economic perspective remains a challenge with the decrease in disinflation, geopolitical tensions and uncertainties of policies. The strong dollar continues to press the currencies of emerging markets and increase volatility in financial markets, among others,” said the RBI in Google translated into Google minutes of your February meeting.

Bank of America analysts said that monetary policy in the country has now “firmly turned to support growth”, since medium -term inflation forecasts are around the 4% target of the Indian reserve bank.

Analysts expect 100 basic cuts of cuts by the RBI by the end of 2025, including the 25 -base reduction Delivered in February. “This will carry the repository rate to 5.50% at the end of 2025, which we identify as close to the neutral rate,” they said.